Bitcoin struggles below $100,000 amid holiday illiquidity, but analysts predict a rally above $105,000 post-Christmas, citing macro trends.
Bitcoin analysts are eying an imminent Bitcoin recovery above the $100,000 mark despite a lack of institutional buying power due to the holidays.
Bitcoin’s BTC$98,735 price has been trading under the psychological $100,000 mark since Dec. 19 and is currently down 9.7% from its all-time high of above $108,300 recorded on Dec. 17,
Still, Bitcoin’s price may experience a correction and exceed $105,000 once liquidity returns after the Christmas holidays, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
Bitcoin’s current downtrend is an organic symptom of the holiday illiquidity, :
“Post-Christmas, market activity typically picks up again, with funds expected to actively position for sectors that might benefit from Trump’s upcoming inauguration… The expected trading range for BTC this week is $94,000 – $105,000.”
The analysts’ prediction comes nearly a month ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on Jan. 20, which is considered a positive event for cryptocurrency regulations in the United States and overall economic policy leading up to 2028.
Bitcoin recovery to $105,000 imminent, but Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed
While Bitcoin is expected to recapture the six-figure price tag, its current price action remains limited by the slump in the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The Bitcoin ETFs are on a four-day losing streak, recording over $338 million worth of cumulative net outflows on Dec. 24, Farside Investors data shows.
ETF inflows have been a significant driver for Bitcoin’s rally during 2024. The US spot ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in Bitcoin, pushing its price past the $50,000 mark by Feb. 15.
Another bullish signal is seen in Bitcoin’s funding rate, or the payments that help keep trading fair by aligning futures and spot market prices, which is at 0.0100% on Binance, the world’s largest exchange, according to CoinGlass data.
The positive funding rate signals a buyer-dominated market, as buyers pay sellers a fee (positive funding rate) to maintain their positions.
However, technical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s correction may extend, wrote crypto analyst Rekt Capital in a Dec. 24 X post:
“Bitcoin showed some signs of a relief rally after which price was rejected to almost new lows… Overall, as long as the previously lost supports turn into new resistance – additional downside should be expected”
Still, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory for the next year. Improved macroeconomic conditions could fuel Bitcoin’s rally to $160,000 in 2025, according to a report from crypto services provider Matrixport.
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