XRP’s price is trailing the broader crypto market’s gains, but fractal analysis suggests it may soon gather upward momentum.
XRP $0.61 price has notably lagged in the ongoing cryptocurrency market rally, failing to revisit its peak value set in January 2018. But could 2024 be any different?
XRP lags behind Bitcoin, ETH price gains
XRP’s price returns in 2024 sit at just 1.85% despite a prevailing upside sentiment across the crypto market. For instance, Bitcoin
ETH
$3,903 have gained 58% and 68.50% in the same period. Perhaps more astonishing, the XRP/BTC pair has lost 88% over the past five years.
XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Perhaps more astonishing, the XRP/BTC pair has lost 88% over the past five years as traders have shifted focus to the surge of investments into newly launched Bitcoin ETFs, the Bitcoin halving event, and speculation on the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs by May.
Technically, XRP price has been facing extreme sell-pressure at its multi-year descending trendline resistance since December 2017, as shown below. In 2024, traders have been unable to close decisively above this trendline.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
In 2024, XRP’s slump also coincides with its declining whale count. Notably, the number of its richest addresses holding at least 100,000 tokens has declined substantially this year. This suggests diminishing (wealthy) investor interest in XRP.
XRP addresses with more than 100K balance. Source: Messari
Meanwhile, the ongoing legal dispute between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple added to the uncertainty, suggests Bill Morgan, a pro-crypto lawyer tracking the case.
The SEC vs. Ripple case will likely drag into May 2024 after U.S. District Court Judge Analisa Torres extended the regulator’s submission deadline earlier this month.
XRP price: Bullish fractal gives hope
The bullish technical scenario has XRP price eyeing a 15% jump toward $0.75 by June 2024. This level is near the XRP/USD pair’s descending trendline resistance and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Moreover, a decisive breakout above the resistance confluence of XRP’s descending trendline and 0.236 Fib retracement line could push the price to as high as $1.11. Interestingly, such a scenario would repeat a 2014-2017 fractal, shared by market analyst Coosh Alemzadeh.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: X/Coosh Alemzadeh
Should history repeat, Alemzadeh anticipates XRP’s price setting a new record high above $3.55 over the next few months.
XRP price: Bearish scenario
Conversely, a potential pullback from the descending trendline resistance positions XRP for a drop to $0.50, down 20% from the current price levels. This level is crucial as the ascending trendline support level.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
This $0.50-level is where the bulls will certainly make a stand: it’s a confluence of the 200-week exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) and a multi-month ascending trendline support.
