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Today, in crypto, data has revealed that bets on world events have worked out favorably for just 12.7% of user wallets, and HBO’s Bitcoin flick claimed Peter Todd is the cryptocurrency’s creator as speculation about who the documentary would name intensified ahead of its debut.
Only 12.7% of crypto wallets report profits on Polymarket
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform that allows cryptocurrency users to place bets on world events, has worked out favorably for just 12.7% of user wallets, according to new data.
Data from the onchain analytics tool Layerhub shows that 149,383, or 87.3% of the 171,113 crypto wallets on Polymarket, did not make a profit. Wallets with confirmed profits amount to 21,730, or 12.7%.
Of the wallets that reported profits, only 2,138 users made more than $1,000, with the majority of the profits being less than $100. As shown in the above graph, about 7,400 Polymarket wallets made profits in the $100–$1000 range.
It’s important to note that not all crypto wallets represent individual users. Traders may operate multiple wallets, placing high-risk, high-reward bets to increase their chances of making profits.
HBO documentary names Peter Todd as Satoshi
HBO’s documentary aimed at outing Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has named Canadian Bitcoin core developer Peter Todd — who has denied the claim.
Cullen Hobak, the producer of HBO’s Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, confronts Todd and Blockstream founder Adam Back with evidence he gathered to conclude that Todd was Nakamoto.
The film ends with Todd saying: “Well yeah, I’m Satoshi Nakamoto,” in response to a confrontational question from Hoback — Todd is well-known for invoking such a phrase as a way of supporting the real creator’s right to privacy.
Todd also denied being Nakamoto on social media after the release of the documentary. blenting writing, “I am not Satoshi” in an Oct. 8 response to a comment on X asking him to deny HBO’s claim.
Holback’s reasoning for claiming Todd is Nakamoto rests on a chat log message Todd wrote where he claims to be “the world’s leading expert on how to sacrifice your Bitcoins,” adding that he had “done one such sacrifice and I did it by hand.”
Hoback classified this message as an admission that Todd permanently removed his ability to access the $69.4 billion believed to be held by Nakamoto.
Debate over Satoshi’s identity intensifies ahead of HBO doc
Speculation about the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto intensified ahead of HBO’s documentary with a report by 10x Research revisiting two leading theories about Nakamoto’s identity — one pointing to cryptographer Nick Szabo and the other signaling involvement by the US National Security Agency (NSA).
10x Research noted Szabo’s influence on cryptography, highlighting his proposal for Bitcoin’s precursor, “Bit Gold,” in the 1990s.
The researchers also pointed to the NSA’s expertise in technology for the organization’s potential role in Bitcoin’s creation.
Szabo recently overtook late cryptographer Len Sassaman as HBO’s Nakamoto reveal.
However, in the later hours of Oct. 8, Adam Back—a familiar name in the Bitcoin community—was the odds-on favorite to be outed as Nakamoto, according to Polymarket.
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