Bitcoin price action may have to diverge from stocks if history repeats itself after a bumper Fed rate cut, analysis warns.
Bitcoin sought to flip $62,000 to support on Sept. 19 as markets digested a rare 0.5% interest rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve.
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BTC price sees three-week highs as Fed cuts big
Data from TradingView followed continued Bitcoin BTC $62,276 price strength during the Asia trading session.
Local highs of $62,600 followed the Fed’s move, which was only the third time in history that a rate-cutting cycle had begun with a 0.5% reduction.
These, in turn, liquidated short BTC positions across exchange order books. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put the total for the 24 hours to the time of writing at $128 million.
“Now we need to reduce leverage or take profits,” it told followers on X in a subsequent analysis, warning them not to “get carried away.”
BTC price prediction calling for $64,000 in the event of a 0.5% cut, which ultimately proved too much for bulls to muster as significant resistance lingered overhead.
“Bitcoin slowly eating its way through the resistance level,” popular trader Jelle reported on X.
“Above $62,500, things will look a lot more constructive, and stops above $65,000 won’t be safe anymore. Going to be an interesting end to September.”
The US dollar saw volatile conditions, meanwhile, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) initially also rising before giving up its gains to return to prior support.
“Sitting at the edge of support. Breakdown can result in a sharp move towards 96,” popular trader Aksel Kibar responded in his latest DXY analysis on X.
For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, attention was now on the Bank of Japan’s own rates decision due on Sept. 20.
The strength of the yen would, in turn, influence BTC price performance, he suggested.
“Something doesn’t add up”
Zooming out, however, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter had a clear warning for risk-asset traders.
While seemingly boosting liquidity, rate-cutting cycles beginning with a 0.5% decrease ultimately result in losses for US equities.
“In 2001, the market fell 31% after 2 years and in 2007 the market fell 26% after 2 years. These were major crises,” part of an X thread recalled.
Kobeissi contrasted the Fed’s upbeat message with the scale of its policy dial-back, suggesting a contradiction in play.
“If the Fed has only started with 50 basis point rate cuts during crises, why start with 50 bps this time?” it queried.
“The Fed continues to say the economy is strong and they are calling for a soft landing. But policy decisions are as if we are in a crisis. Something doesn’t add up here.”
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of another 0.5% cut being less likely than a smaller 0.25% follow-up at the Fed’s next meeting on Nov. 7.
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