The likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 has risen to 45%, despite its recent pullback, according to recent onchain data.
Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price by the end of 2024, with a few even eyeing a surge to $150,000 despite the recent pullback to $90,000, onchain data shows.
“Interestingly, the likelihood of BTC exceeding $100,000 has risen to 45% from last week’s 34%, with a new 4% probability of surpassing $150,000,” onchain options DeFi protocol founder Nick Forster said in a Nov. 26 markets report.
“Very few” Bitcoin sellers, according to data
Forster said that the significant demand for Bitcoin BTC$94,758 options, particularly calls that bet its price will rise, “signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
According to Derive data, 41.3% of contracts traded were calls, while 38.3% were puts betting Bitcoin would drip with “very few sellers.” These grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase (call option) or sell (put option) Bitcoin on or before an expiration date at a particular price (the strike price).
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $92,680, down about 7.02% from its near $100,000 peak, which topped out at $99,541
The data also indicates that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of retracing to $81,493 or rising to $115,579. Meanwhile, there’s only a 5% chance of it dropping below $70,000 to $68,429 or reaching as high as $137,645.
However, some analysts have not ruled out the possibility of more severe pullbacks.
More brutal pullbacks a possibility, says analysts
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju said in a Nov. 26 X post that even in a “parabolic bull run, Bitcoin can see -30% pullbacks.”
Ju highlighted that “such corrections repeatedly occurred” during the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin then surged from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This isn’t a call for a correction — just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We’re in a bull market,” Ju added.
Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst PlanC is “happy” to see Bitcoin “consolidate a bit in the 90s.”
“It’s looking more and more likely that we could actually spend some time consolidating in the 90s,” PlanC stated in a Nov. 26 X post.
“If that’s the case, it would be the best-case scenario for the longevity of this bull market,” he added.
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