The Bitcoin price is continuing its meandering, sideways path, while sustaining itself above the critical $58,000 level. That said, a pivotal point is approaching, where the winner between the bulls and the bears will decide the direction of the next big Bitcoin move.
The most unlikely scenario for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is 161 days into this grinding sideways consolidation period that started when the $BTC price hit the all-time high of $73,800 back in March. The next possible scenario is either a continuation, a break down, or a break upwards.
If we take the most unlikely scenario first – a break down would possibly mean that the $BTC price just continues to roll over, until it hits a point where the bull trend breaks, and the last support fails, and it enters a bear market – well ahead of time.
Is this really likely to happen? Global M2 money supply reached an all-time high on Monday. Global liquidity is increasing as more currency needs to be printed in order for world governments to roll their debts over. Are investors really going to sell their Bitcoin in exchange for dollars?
There are still headwinds for Bitcoin. Even though the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are sustaining their buying, there are other big entities like Mt. Gox, the U.S. government, et al, that can still significantly dampen the price action, meaning that the sideways grind could carry on for a while yet.
However, the traditional Summer doldrums for stocks and crypto are drawing to a close. The stock market is already heading back to all-time highs, and a long and deep correction for Bitcoin could finally have run its course.
Short term $BTC breakout coming
Source: TradingView
Looking at the $BTC price in the short time frame, it can be seen that it is traversing inside a triangle, with a breakout in one direction or the other coming soon. The fibonacci levels show that if a bounce can take place from the 0.382 level, without even coming down to the 0.618, then this would be very bullish.
Beautiful long term price structure
Source: TradingView
Zooming out to the weekly chart, one can see some very strong price levels. Plenty of price structure has been laid down over the last bull market and this one, between the levels of around $30,000 up to around $50,000.
The $50,000 level was retested during the Japanese stock market crash, and therefore, it now remains to get back above $70,000 and to use the structure that has been laid down over these last few months as a strong base from which to go higher.
That big Bitcoin move is coming. It could be sooner or it could be later, but the chances of it heading to the upside are probably more likely.
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