BTC price volatility is the name of the game this week as macro pressures combine with the incoming Bitcoin halving.
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BTC $66,681 starts a new week with an uphill struggle to regain lost ground after a 15% BTC price dip.
After a weekend that decimated crypto, traders are licking their wounds — but Bitcoin is already bouncing back.
Sensitivity to geopolitics thus forms a key focus for the coming week, with commentators comparing recent events in the Middle East to the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.
So far, altcoins have borne the brunt of the snap market reaction to hostilities between Israel and Iran, with BTC/USD managing to preserve $60,000 support.
Leverage nonetheless saw a comprehensive flush, and even on Bitcoin, 30% of open interest disappeared in an instant.
Going forward, there is much to contend with — while volatility is already plenty visible, Bitcoin is just days away from its next block subsidy halving.
The stage is thus set for volatile conditions to continue as BTC price action becomes anything but boring.
Bitcoin bulls bounce back after flash crash to $61,000
It can be safely said that this weekend produced a crypto market nightmare unlike many seen before.
As news of fresh geopolitical instability in the Middle East emerged, crypto, as the only free-trading markets open 24/7, saw immediate losses.
Altcoin total market cap 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
While the extent of the moves caught some by surprise, popular analyst Matthew Hyland suggested that in hindsight, the signs of a flash correction were already present.
“Overall BTC still basically consolidating at ATHs. ALTs punished but I think it was to rid the market of the over-leveraged and weaker hands,” he concluded at the end of a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Source: Matthew Hyland
Analyzing current order book data, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto eyed ongoing shifts in liquidity being placed and pulled on largest exchange Binance.
“Spot still trading at a premium- everything else still looking very healthy,” he summarized.
BTC/USDT liquidity chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass covered the combined liquidity picture across exchanges, showing the biggest block of asks at $68,500 as of April 15.
“Bitcoin still holds above its previous cycle highs,” fellow trader Jelle meanwhile added, referring to monthly close levels.
“Everything is going to be okay.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X
At around $65,750, the latest weekly close on BTC/USD was the pair’s lowest since the beginning of March
Middle East jitters combine with fresh Fed comments
The coming week holds a typical cocktail of United States macroeconomic data and commentary from senior Federal Reserve officials — including Chair Jerome Powell.
While nothing out of the ordinary in itself, the atmosphere is compounded by events in the Middle East, potentially leaving already wary risk assets open to additional sensitivity.
“In just a few hours, we will see the market’s response to geopolitical tensions this weekend,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary dates entry on X, referring to the beginning of trading in Asia and on Wall Street.
Jobless claims form the key data print for the week; these are due on April 18, while Powell will speak on April 16.
Inflation remains an important consideration for traders, who have repeatedly priced out the odds of interest rate cuts coming sooner rather than later this year.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting at 43%, with September at 45%.
Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
“Given the market’s sensitivity to rates at the moment, any irrational dip on data that reprices the outlook for rates is a buy,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro told X subscribers in part of macro market coverage last week.
“Fiscal spending is the greater power here.”
Halving week dawns with focus on price volatility
The weekend’s market volatility has almost served to overshadow Bitcoin’s imminent block subsidy halving at the last minute.
With just four days to go, traders’ attention remains focused on price rather than the seminal network event, the countdown to which has, in fact, lasted many months.
Miners are at the forefront of the changes, with their revenue streams being reshaped in an instant as “new” bitcoins per mined block drop by 50% to 3.125 BTC.
Nonetheless, the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows the BTC balance in known miner wallets staying mostly flat since the end of March.
BTC balance in miner wallets. Source: Glassnode
Revenues, with fees included, meanwhile continue to circle familiar levels. Spikes in the current halving cycle are visible, most recently thanks to the Ordinals boom in late 2023.
Bitcoin miner revenue. Source: Glassnode
Hong Kong reportedly approves spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs
While it remains to be seen how the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will respond to the weekend’s volatility, good news starts the week elsewhere.
Regulators in Hong Kong have approved Bitcoin and Ether
ETH $3,263 ETFs for trading, reports say — something which is getting observers excited for future Chinese participation.
“More ETFs, China has easier access to it through Hong Kong this way,” popular commentator WhalePanda wrote in an X reaction.
“Very bullish.”
Operators including China Asset Management, Harvest Global Investments and Bosera Asset Management will be launching spot crypto products, according to the reports.
“China Asset Management (Hong Kong) has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset management services to investors,” part of a press release currently being shared on social media states.
“It now plans to issue ETF products that can invest in spot Bitcoin and spot Ethereum.”
The move comes at a time when the U.S. ETFs are facing a broad slowdown in inflows after a rapid acceleration in March accompanied the ascent to BTC price all-time highs.
The U.S. products nonetheless remain the most successful ETF launches in history, with the two largest offerings from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments seeing net inflows every day since their debut.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside
Crypto “greed” still reigns supreme
In an admonishary signal to those hoping for a sustained crypto price recovery, sentiment remains firmly “greedy.”
According to the latest data from the classic sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, even the weekend wipeout failed to induce significant cold feet into investors’ mindset.
Fear & Greed reached 72/100, and while this marks its lowest in around ten days, it is far from a capitulatory move.
At the time of writing on April 15, the Index is now once again rising, hitting 74/100 to near its “extreme greed” zone.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
In an X survey on April 15, WhalePanda showed the state of flux among market observers. Asked where BTC/USD might be by the halving, respondents were broadly split — while a small majority still envisaged a retaking of $70,000 by next weekend.
Source: WhalePanda
